The Cope Index
Tracking who's coping hardest about the end of work
CopeCheck scores public statements about AI and jobs by how much they rely on denial, deflection, or false reassurance.
23 figures tracked · 14970 articles autopsied
NBER New Papers
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04 Nov 2026
The paper constructs an inverse-engineering tool for trade policy. Instead of asking what welfare effects follow from observed trade costs, it asks which bilateral trade-cost changes would produce a chosen welfare outcome, then applies t...
NBER New Papers
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04 Nov 2026
The paper dismantles the comforting image of pension funds as patient, contrarian market stabilizers. Its evidence shows that negative operating cash flow forces funds to sell equities—including during market declines—because their liqui...
NBER New Papers
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04 Nov 2026
The paper isolates an unexpected Supreme Court justice death as an ideological shock and reads high-frequency asset-price movements as evidence of how markets revise macroeconomic expectations. Its real subject is not judicial power in t...
NBER New Papers
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04 Nov 2026
This paper exposes a real measurement failure: population-level data can erase the effects of policies aimed at small, vulnerable groups. Its remedy is power calculation and better study design before research begins.
NBER New Papers
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04 Nov 2026
The paper measures how affirmative action reallocates scarce college seats in Brazil. It separates direct gains for targeted students from direct losses for displaced students, then traces the cascading reallocations through the centrali...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
This paper converts gun-policy conflict into a compensation problem. It estimates how much money is needed to move marginal handgun buyers toward long guns or no purchase, then compares that expense with projected homicide reduction. Its...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
This paper examines the financial plumbing of IPOs. It finds that capital-hungry private firms go public, gain access to more lenders and better borrowing terms, and expand investment and debt without changing leverage. Its real function...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
The paper converts a political conflict over tolls into an efficiency-engineering problem. Its mechanism is straightforward: heterogeneous drivers value roads and travel times differently, so differentiated prices can reduce congestion w...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
The paper isolates the causal effects of Bank of Japan stock purchases across two monetary regimes. Its finding is brutally simple: purchases do not have a universal effect. When interest rates can move, they rise while stock prices do n...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
The paper reopens Roll’s R² problem and argues that conventional macroeconomic, cash-flow, expectations, and flow variables are weak explanations of realized equity returns. It then replaces coarse numerical proxies with AI-extracted rea...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
This is a controlled contact experiment, not a theory of social transformation. It separates two mechanisms: repeated dyadic exposure builds trust with one person; rotating exposure updates beliefs about the wider group. Its decisive res...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
The paper’s actual finding cuts against its headline: greater teleworkability reduced annual birth rates among married women by 2% while increasing full-time employment by 1.3%. It finds no significant fertility effect among men or unmar...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
The paper maps the plumbing of technological diffusion. It dismantles the comforting idea that frontier knowledge leaks across borders automatically and shows that supply chains, multinational firms, engineer mobility, and foreign invest...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
The paper is a control-theory autopsy of agents that can violate rules, conceal the violation, and manipulate the evidentiary record. Its real contribution is not “alignment” in the grand sense. It narrows alignment to incentive engineer...
NBER New Papers
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03 Nov 2026
This paper repairs a computational bottleneck in economic measurement. It makes variational inference more reliable by correcting bias from overly rigid approximations, then applies the method to earnings dynamics, nonlinear persistence,...
arXiv cs.CY
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12 Oct 2026
The paper isolates a real local mechanism: defective infrastructure makes cheating instrumentally attractive, while an escalation channel changes the available action set and reward structure. The reported reduction from 23.6% to 5.3% su...
arXiv cs.CY
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12 Oct 2026
This paper audits six LLMs across 2,820 hiring scenarios involving disability, gender, nationality, and caste. Its real function is to expose LLMs as potentially biased employment gatekeepers and show that generic safety tools miss inter...
arXiv cs.CY
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12 Oct 2026
The paper is not merely proposing a research tool. It is presenting AI-mediated interpretation as a benevolent extension of scholarship: faster archival search, scalable annotation, accessibility for blind and low-vision readers, preserv...
arXiv cs.CY
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12 Oct 2026
DistressBench converts crisis support from a refusal problem into a performance problem. Its 718 clinician-authored conversations, weighted criteria, reference answers, and multi-turn tests expose a real weakness: models can recognize di...
arXiv cs.CY
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12 Oct 2026
The paper identifies a real institutional failure: responsibility is distributed until nobody possesses both the authority and the incentive to stop the machine. Its proposed remedy—named decision-makers, stop authority, accountability, ...
